Spot XRP ($2.23) exchange-traded funds could draw in $800 million in their first week and up to $8 billion in their first year of trading — not to mention pump the Ripple-linked crypto’s price.
Those are some of the predictions made by crypto-market watchers like JPMorgan gauging the XRP exchange-traded fund applications that have flooded the Securities and Exchange Commission in recent months.
Several applications — from Bitwise, 21Shares, Grayscale and others — have already been acknowledged by the SEC, the first step from the agency’s side in the process. Other altcoin applications have also been acknowledged.
The regulator’s recognition signals that things may be changing as the SEC previously told applicants to withdraw their applications almost as soon as they filed them, analysts say.
The agency has until mid-October to make its final decision on these applications.
Here’s what experts from JPMorgan, Bitwise and others say to expect.
James Seyffart, Bloomberg
Bloomberg Intelligence ETF Analyst James Seyffart told DL News that if new XRP ETFs manage to lure over $85 million in their first week, that would be “a relative success.”
The spot market for XRP is about 7.5% the size of Bitcoin, Seyffart said.
“If the XRP ETF’s are able to see volume in flows that are near or around 7.5% or more of the Bitcoin ETFs’ launch numbers, I would consider them to be a relative success,” he said. “Bitcoin ETFs saw about $14 billion in trading volume and $1.13 billion in flows.”
Donald Trump has pledged to relax crypto laws and to stop the government’s crackdown on digital assets.
Since Trump’s inauguration, that has translated to him issuing executive orders, making pro-crypto appointments, and the SEC halting some of its cases against industry players.
If that translates to the markets watchdog dropping its long-running case against Ripple, then that will be another bullish sign for crypto, Seyffart said.
“The positive momentum in lawsuits with Coinbase and Robinhood are probably a good sign there will be some sort of solution in the coming months,” said Seyffart.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at asset manager Bitwise, is bullish on the prospects of XRP ETFs getting the nod from the SEC.
Speaking to CNBC, Hougan steered clear of discussing Bitwise’s application directly, but maintained that “there’s substantial demand for an XRP ETF.”
Without referencing specific numbers, Hougan cited the strong community of Ripple and XRP, and the lighter-touch approach to crypto that Washington DC has taken in the wake of Trump’s re-election.
JPMorgan
In January, JPMorgan’s analysts predicted that up to $8 billion will flow towards XRP ETFs during their first year.
Yet, they remained bearish on altcoin ETFs in general.
“We don’t see investor interest or demand great enough to make these future altcoin ETP ($0.00) launches meaningful for the cryptocurrency ecosystem,” JPMorgan analysts wrote.
Luca Sorlini, Northstake
Luca Sorlini, head of products at virtual asset service provider Northstake, told DL News that he expected XRP ETFs to lure between $400 million and $800 million in their first week of trading.
He extrapolated those figures from looking at the flows seen in spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs.
Although, Sorlini did caveat that those figures would rely on how interested institutions are in the new funds, how many funds there are, and what the overall market conditions at launch are.
CCData’s Jacob Joseph
If an XRP ETF is approved, market analysts expect the crypto’s price to soar.
“This is likely to result in a surge in price if prior examples of Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF approvals are to be taken into account,” Jacob Joseph, senior research analyst at crypto data provider CCData, told DL News.
Bitcoin soared 150% over the course of last year after the SEC approved Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024.
Crypto market movers
- Bitcoin is down 1.5% in the last 24 hours to $86,333.
- Ethereum is down 3.2% in the last 24 hours to $2,350.
What we’re reading
- Bitcoin is plummeting. Here’s where Arthur Hayes and six experts say it’s headed next ― DL News
- Today’s market nuke explained ― Milk Road
- Is the SEC About to Reverse its Position on Howey? ― Unchained
- How to find winners (as markets tank) ― Milk Road
- Hack of wallet provider is behind $1.4bn Bybit theft, investigation finds ― DL News
Andrew Flanagan is a Markets Correspondent for DL News. Got a tip? Reach out to [email protected].
