Bitcoin’s current price action closely aligns with patterns seen during the 2015-2018 market cycle, according to the latest data from blockchain analytics firm Glassnode. This parallel points to the potential for continued growth, although the scale of future gains remains uncertain.
Glassnode’s analysis highlights a trend of diminishing returns throughout Bitcoin’s historical cycles as the asset matures. The first cycle saw an astronomical 80.51x price increase from the 2009 genesis block to 2011. Subsequent cycles from 2011-2015, 2015-2018, and 2018-2022 saw more modest growth rates of 55.30x, 2.80x, and 3.31x, respectively.
In its latest report, Glassnode observed that Bitcoin’s current price trajectory mirrors the midpoint of the 2015-2018 cycle. At a comparable point during that cycle, Bitcoin was up 562%. Today, it is up nearly 630% from its 2022 cycle low of $15,000, suggesting the potential for further upside momentum.
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Bitget analysts predict that if Bitcoin were to repeat the percentage gains from the 2015-2018 cycle, it could theoretically reach $1.7 million, a staggering 11,374% increase from its previous low. But these estimates are a reminder of the difficulties in predicting future growth based solely on historical patterns.
While institutional adoption and advances in blockchain technology are enabling wider adoption of BTC ($105,615.47), challenges such as market volatility, regulatory hurdles, and global economic conditions will significantly impact its future trajectory, Bitget Wallet COO Alvin Kan warned.
“Increased institutional adoption adds stability and legitimacy to the market, but balancing regulation with decentralization remains a critical challenge,” Kan said.
Marcin Mazmierczak, COO of RedStone Oracles, noted that while historical parallels provide valuable context, the current market environment is fundamentally different from previous cycles.
“During the 2015-2018 cycle, Bitcoin rose from around $200 to around $20,000, with daily trading volumes increasing from $50 million to over $10 billion,” Mazmierczak said. “Today’s environment includes institutional adoption via ETFs, a maturing DeFi ecosystem, and more sophisticated market infrastructure.”
*This is not investment advice.
Continue Reading: “This Bitcoin Cycle Resembles the 2015-2018 Cycle,” Experts Say, Reveal BTC Price Forecast
