Investors are betting Bitcoin will surge to $120,000 in March despite crypto markets crashing this week.
That’s according to options data from basedmoney.io, which shows that almost four out of every 10 trades that expire March 28 will only pay out if Bitcoin hits above $120,000.
The sentiment echoes that of analysts who predict that Bitcoin’s wobble since President Donald Trump’s inauguration is just that — a wobble.
“It feels like the next leg higher and breakout for Bitcoin is imminent,” David Brickell, head of international distribution at FRNT Financial, and Chris Mills, co-head of digital assets at JB Drax Honore, said last week.
They reiterated that sentiment this week, saying that the economy shows several positive signs for risk assets like Bitcoin despite the bloodbath.
Bitcoin’s winter lull
Bitcoin has had a disappointing run since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump on January 20.
Trump’s victory in the November 5 election sent Bitcoin soaring to record highs. Investors bet he’d fulfil promises to the crypto industry, including backing crypto-friendly laws and regulators.
Bitcoin traded at $105,000 on the eve of Trump’s inauguration, more than double what it had been worth a year earlier.
Since then, it has largely hovered between $95,000 and $99,000, before crashing below $88,000 this week.
Analyst Noelle Acheson attributed Bitcoin’s lull to memories of the 2022 crypto crash, controversies surrounding memecoins, uncertainty over a proposed federal Bitcoin stockpile, and “a lack of crypto innovation.”
Several experts say it’s just a pause on Bitcoin’s march to ever-greater heights.
Decentralised options exchange Derive’s cofounder Nick Forster has estimated Bitcoin has a 12% chance of reaching $200,000 by the end of 2025 and a 15% probability of surpassing $135,000 by the end of the second quarter.
And Standard Chartered’s Geoff Kendrick predicted Bitcoin will rise to $500,000 by the end of Trump’s current term as sovereign wealth funds and pension funds will pile into the cryptocurrency.
Open interest in Ethereum is similarly bullish, with two of every three options investors on Deribit betting the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency will rise, according to basedmoney.io.
Of the major cryptocurrencies, Solana is the only one in which bears outnumber the bulls: more than half of options contracts are puts, and they account for 90% of the notional volume of open interest in Solana on Deribit.
Aleks Gilbert is DL New’s New York-based DeFi correspondent. You can reach him at [email protected].
