Catholics hoping for a payday by speculating on the fate of the pope may face excommunication.
Or at least, that’s if they follow an obscure church rule that dates back to at least the 1500s.
Wagers on Pope Francis’ future in the Vatican have generated almost $200,000 on Polymarket as the 88-year-old’s hospital stay extends into a second week.
The crypto betting site offers punters the options to speculate on “New Pope in 2025?” — where 79% bet on yes — or “Will Pope Francis step down before July?” — where 18% bet in the affirmative.
It’s not the first time Polymarket has offered bets that are off-putting or in poor taste. A Polymarket wager about the Titan submersible in 2023 drew criticism for profiting from the fates of the doomed passengers.
Forbidden in 1591
Gambling goes back thousands of years, and ancient Romans were no strangers to the practice.
In the age of Christianity, betting on the health of popes and the outcome of papal elections was so rampant that Pope Gregory XIV forbade it, with a penalty of excommunication, in 1591.
According to one historian, bookies in Rome in 1584 took bets on whether, and for how long, Pope Gregory XIII would visit his hometown of Bologna.
The pope was ill, and clergy and papal officials — even Philip II of Spain — worried about the impact of his potential death.
Such brokers and their clients were committing sacrilege, Gregory XIV said in writings at the time, because “with the spiritual and the sacred they mix any sort of money and go about attaching to them the foulest customs of the market.”
Pope Francis
But Catholic punters who want to play the odds on the fate of Pope Francis can rest easy.
Gregory XIV’s edict falls under the old system of canon law, much of which was revamped to more modern versions, according to uCatholic, a website for prayer and community.
The papal gambling ban got nixed in 1918.
Offences that can result in excommunication today include heresy, violations of the sacraments, and physical violence against the pope.
“There is currently no canon law on conclave or cardinal wagers,” it said.
The Vatican said that Pope Francis remains in a critical condition with kidney failure.
The pope over the weekend, however, has asked for prayers, not wagers.
Trista Kelley is DL News’ editor-in-chief.
